It is hard to grasp the nature of the Syrian rebellion from Damascus. What is clear after more than three months is the absence of a “Tahrir Square” equivalent. “It seems that there are several local dynamics at work”, the same foreign resident says, “and each dynamic has its own logic.”
..
The collapse of the Soviet Union showed that the conditions in which a regime falls will to a great extent determine what kind of political system will take its place: Russia experienced near state collapse with catastrophic consequences, while Poland’s political transition was organised through the “roundtable”. Syria changed irrevocably on 15 March 2011 - but its future trajectory will depend on the way the transition of power takes place
..
The central question remains whether the Syrian rebellion will have enough time to replace the state-security apparatus, before a more destructive implosion. In these conditions, the future of Syrian politics is uncertain.